NFL DFS Week 1 Thursday Night Showdown Breakdown: Packers vs. Bears

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It makes sense to go to Aaron Rodgers as your QB1 over Trubisky if salary allows in cash games. Even in a relatively tough matchup, Rodgers in Matt LaFleur’s newly installed offense should find enough success to make him the top play on the slate. Trubisky gets the better matchup, but projects worse and is expected to be playing with a lead. He’s a QB, so he’s still a great play in GPPs or cash games.

At running back, I’m expecting David Montgomery and Aaron Jones to see a relatively similar workload, though Montgomery is on the favored team and gets a bottom half rush defense. Jones, on the other hand, will face a mostly-unchanged Bears defense that was 2nd in rushing DVOA in 2018. Montgomery was a standout at Iowa State and the hype around him from all levels of Bears’ management has been heard loud and clear. I’m expecting him to get plenty of opportunity, both in the rush and pass game. Jones profiles as more of a GPP play if you believe the Packers sustain an early lead and are able to have success on the ground.

Tarik Cohen was a high upside play last year, and he will be the same in this matchup. His price is very high on both sites, especially considering the likely loss of snaps to Montgomery.

When looking for an option in the Bears passing game in cash games, Allen Robinson looks like the best option. He draws a soft matchup vs the Packers defense, and was targeted heavily vs man coverage last year, which the Packers roll out almost exclusively on defense. Anthony Miller will man the slot after missing a lot of time in the preseason, and I’d prefer playing Miller – with a more clear path to snaps — over Cohen as a Bears offensive option.

Packers receivers are a bit tough to pin down in this spot. Davante Adams is coming into the season as the league leader in touchdown receptions, but this is not the best matchup for him against the Bears defense with the Packers’ team total at 21.75, and he is priced with the QBs. Outside of GPP, I don’t see how you’re getting to Adams, and prefer either of the QBs in cash games. Instead, look to Geronimo Allison in this matchup vs Bears’ slot corner Buster Skrine. He is one of my favorite values on the slate, avoiding the coverage of Kyle Fuller in the slot. Opposite Adams will be Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is expected to have a massive year in LaFleur’s offense with the WR2 role locked down. That said, in this spot, he’s my least favorite of the Packers WRs in cash and GPP.

Of course, the kickers are always in play in cash games as a FLEX options because they are so cheap. With the Bears being the favorite at home, Eddy Pineiro is the preferred kicking option in cash games. There are two very cheap options with possible roles in their offenses outside of the kickers: Packers No. 4 WR Jake Kumerow and Bears TE Adam Shaheen. Shaheen is a blocking-first tight end that could end up as the TE1 in the offense if Trey Burton (questionable, game-time decision) sits out. Expect him to be mega-chalky if Burton is out, and a low upside GPP option if Burton is active. Kumerow had yet another great preseason, but his snaps come down to how many 4-WR sets LaFleur is going to run. I’m expecting only 20-25% of the snaps in this game at best. Both work in GPPs specifically to allow you to pay up elsewhere, but aren’t awful as FLEX options in cash games either.

Favorite GPP stacks

David Montgomery MVP/Packers passing game options – As the Vegas line implies and seems like the most likely outcome of this game, Bears get up early, run the ball a ton with Montgomery for clock management (who draws a soft matchup), and Rogers tries to makeup the difference. This is my favorite route for DraftKings cash games, Montgomery captain with Rodgers FLEX and 1-2 Green Bay receiving options. Can mix and match to make some GPP builds from here as well.

Aaron Rodgers/Packers passing option/Mitch Trubisky  Leans toward a higher scoring game, which is only a GPP route in a game featuring the Bears’ defense at home.

Allen Robinson MVP/Mitch Trubisky/Aaron Jones – Packers get up early, Bears are forced to throw for most of the game. Aaron Jones finds success in run and passing game despite tough matchup. Can also flip Trubisky to captain.

Adam Shaheen MVP/whoever you want to play – If Burton is out, this is a possible build in DraftKings GPPs. Shaheen is so cheap, and at 6-foot-6 has decent implied touchdown odds. If he scores and you have the top scorers elsewhere, you’re in good shape.

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