[tm_pb_section admin_label=”section”][tm_pb_row admin_label=”row”][tm_pb_column type=”4_4″][tm_pb_text admin_label=”Text” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]
Mississippi @ Memphis (-4.5) — 65
Very clearly the top game to stack on the slate.
QB Matt Corral – $7,200 DK / $8,900 FD – High-ranked pro-style recruit priced relatively cheap with a good matchup. Not a lot of rushing upside, but still a decent cash option on DK with some ability to get out of the pocket. I’d prefer to get to Corral as my QB1 in cash games while playing a $6k dual-threat guy (there are a spew of them) in my super FLEX. While it’d be great to target one of these Ole Miss WRs in this spot, it’s hard to see any that are worth paying the price for right now, as there is expected to be a rotation. Braylon Sanders has a solid price on FanDuel, and Elijah Moore should be the WR1 in targets, so if you’re looking for an Ole Miss WR, either of them are fine in the mid-range.
RB Patrick Taylor Jr. – $8,500 DK / $10,000 FD – It’s a hefty price to pay for the Darrell Henderson replacement, but he’s the RB1 on the slate if you can afford him and a potential slate-breaker. Pollard was great when he got the chance in 2018, and Taylor should have a 15 touch floor on the ground, plus contributions through the air in the highest scoring total on the slate. It’s worth noting that Kylan Watkins is the minimum ($4,000) on FanDuel and is listed as the RB2. Anyone coming in at the minimum on FanDuel is worth a long look, as salary relief can be hard to come by on FD, even if you can only project Watkins for 8-10 touches.
RB Kenneth Gainwell – $3,400 DK / $6,500 FD – A near-lock on DraftKings at this price as the team’s starting tailback. Should play the Tony Pollard role in this offense, a dual-threat weapon out of the backfield. He will not be this cheap for long, so take advantage while you can.
RB Scottie Williams – $6,700 DK / $9,700 – Firm grasp on the RB1 job in the highest total on the slate vs a weak defense and a new QB under-center. Should be in for a lot of work and is a great cash game option.
WR Pop Williams – $4,300 DK / $6,300 FD – I think I’d be more likely to play Williams in cash games than WR1 Damonte Coxie. Williams has a role locked down, is in the highest total game, and doesn’t cost you much. Coxie doesn’t have the elite target share I’m looking for out of my WR1, though he’s fine in GPPs. If you are looking to get a little grimey, look to Kedarian Jones, who will share a starting spot this year, who has a chance for a much bigger role in the offense and is dirt cheap on both sites.
Florida Atlantic @ Ohio State (-27.5) — 64
Ohio State offense is going to mostly GPP in what should be an easy win for the Buckeyes. Binjimen Victor is my favorite DK target, starting in the X for Ohio State at only $4,600. He’s been in the mix for the last two years, but this is his first season with a starting role. Outside of that, I’m not getting to OSU in cash games. I can’t see myself playing any FAU either against a solid OSU defense, it’s hard to feel comfortable with anyone.
South Carolina (-11) @ North Carolina — 63
South Carolina has a three-man backfield that is going to be really hard to pin down until we see it a game. Tavien Feaster, the transfer from Clemson, is probably the most talented and can do some pass game work, but it’s a shot in the dark trying to pin down the carries he gets here. Despite the great spot, I think you have to stay away. QB Jake Bentley is a bit pricey for being a pocket passer, so again not someone I’m going to be looking at in cash games.
WR Bryan Edwards – $7,300 DK / $9,500 FD – Not a bad price for a guy in a very soft matchup expected to fill in for Deebo Samuel. He should be in line for a huge year, and he makes the most sense as exposure to what could be the highest scoring offense on the slate. Shi Smith should lineup opposite Edwards, with Josh Vann getting most of the work as the WR3. Vann has a good bit of hype coming into this game, but it’s not like you’re getting a stellar price for a guy that is going to share snaps as the team’s WR3. Edwards is the SC guy I’d be trying to get, with any of the RBs also in play as cheap options.
It’s strange to only write about Edwards in what is one of the highest totals on the slate, but this SC offense is tough to pin down outside of him.
Virginia Tech (-4.5) @ Boston College — 58
RB AJ Dillon – $7,500 DK / $10,200 FD – Not on the favored team, but it’s going to be hard to find a safer RB workload anywhere. Virginia Tech had one of the worst rushing defenses in D1 last year, though the defense is expected to be improved.
I actually expect this game to be pretty defensive, and none of the WR prices are particularly friendly for the matchup. Damon Hazelton should lead the Hokies WRs this season, while Hezekiah Grimsley is a value-ish option on DK that should play out of the slot.
Duke @ Alabama (-33) — 57
This one is going to get ugly. No way you’re paying for Tua unless you’re getting deep into GPPs. If I was to get a piece of Alabama, I’d look toward Jaylen Waddle on DK, where he is the cheapest of the top three wide receivers but should be a huge part of this passing game. With Devonta Smith expected to miss at least the first half, Waddle could see some extra looks. Tyrell Shavers is listed as the direct back up for Smith and is the bare minimum on both sites. He’s a 6-6 wide receiver who can do a lot. If he gets playing time in place of Smith, he could light it up. Overall, just looking to Waddle in cash games, but nothing else to really see here.
East Carolina @ North Carolina St. (-17) — 51.5
Expecting NC State to get up early and run with ease in this game, especially with the ball in the hands of a fresh starter.
QB Matthew McKay – $6,800 DK / $8,700 FD – Dual-threat QB against a terrible defense that has the starting job locked up. ECU was 107th in Passing S&P last year and isn’t expected to be any better this year. Someone I’ll be looking to in cash games with his expected rushing floor in a soft matchup.
RB Ricky Person – $5,700 DK / $7,700 FD – Should be the No. 1 RB for a 17 point favorite against a weak defense that is playing way out of their league. Not too worried about health, which has been the issue in the past in terms of workload. He may give way to freshman Zonovan Knight at times, who is listed as the co-starter, but I’m expecting Person to get most of the snaps out of the backfield. That said, the depth chart made this situation a bit messy, and if this game gets out of hand, I could see them getting the two younger guys more snaps over Person, which is a cause for concern.
WR Emeka Emezie – $7,100 – Clear WR1, but I’m not sure how much NC State is going to have to throw here. Probably just looking to him in GPPs. Much better spots on the slate. Works great stacking with McKay in GPPs.
Northwestern @ Stanford (-6) — 47.5
Two solid defenses and the lowest total on the DK slate. Northwestern hasn’t named a starting QB. You can find better floors and upside in so many other spots, I just don’t think there’s anything I’d get to here in cash or GPP.
Mississippi State (-19) @ Louisiana-Lafayette — 60 (DK only)
Disclaimer on all Miss. State notes: Ten suspended players will be announced in pre-game, and we have no clue who those guys will be right now. It could open up roles for guys we’re not currently expecting, so just kee an eye on this game.
QB Tommy Stevens – $7,600 DK – Dual-threat transfer QB who was behind Trace McSorely in Penn State last year gets a cake matchup in his debut. ULL plays at a great pace, and Mississippi State should see little to no resistance from a bottom half defense in this game. He is my QB1 on the slate.
RB Kylin Hill – $7,800 DK – As noted above, Mississippi State should have no problem controlling this game, which should put Hill in line for a big day of work. Some concern about it getting out of hand, and there are guys who don’t have to compete with their QB for rushes.
QB Levi Lewis – $4,600 – Very cheap dual-threat QB. If you need to save some money for other positions, Lewis could be the way to do it. Understand that you’re getting a massive low floor risk if you’re going to Lewis. Want a cheap WR to stack him with? You shouldn’t, because the Ragin Cajuns are probably not going to do great offensively in this game. That said, it’d be Jarrod Jackson, whose role is expected to expand this year and is only $4,300 on DK.
Toledo @ Kentucky (-10.5) — 61.5 (DK only)
RB AJ Rose – $6,100 – Poised for a breakout season with Benny Snell gone and gets to start off with a soft matchup. A great athlete with dual-threat capabilities and potential to play at the next level. Awesome mid-range cash game consideration at RB.
WR Lynn Bowden Jr. – $6,500 – Target monster last year, and Kentucky should roll in this game. Definitely has the potential to break the game open with an awesome floor.
QB Terry Wilson – $6,400 – Cake matchup with a rushing floor of 5-6 points with upside for more if he can get into the end zone, which seems very possible in this soft matchup. Wilson make a lot of sense to stack with Bowden, but he’s also fine as a one-off value QB option. Works in cash and GPP.
Toledo is just kind of a mess, and the Kentucky defense was great last year, though it should fall back down to earth a bit this season. The WR corps are inexperienced, and this isn’t the spot where I’m going to try to take a shot on them. Phillips and McKinley-Lewis are the starters, should play most of the snaps, and are both in the 4k range.
Indiana (-18) @ Ball State — 60.5 (DK only)
QB Michael Penix – $6,500 – He won the job very surprisingly to many, and now is squarely worth a look in cash games as a dual-threat QB versus one of the worst defenses in college football. Has cash game and GPP value, like the other rushing QBs in this price range.
WR Nick Westbrook – $6,400 – Really tough to decide between Westbrook/Bowden here, as Westbrook emerged as the clear WR1 down the stretch last year and is expected to be the team’s top WR again in 2019. He’s not much more expensive than Philyor or Hale, the team’s other two starters at WR, though I’m expecting him to do the most.
RB Stevie Scott III – $8,100 – Prefer Taylor as your pay-up RB1, but Scott makes sense in GPPs with the RB1 touches locked down and potential to do a ton with his touches in this matchup. Absolutely has the potential to break the slate at (I’d expect) far lower ownership than Taylor.