[tm_pb_section admin_label=”section”][tm_pb_row admin_label=”row”][tm_pb_column type=”4_4″][tm_pb_text admin_label=”Text” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]
UCLA @ Cincinnati (-2.5) — 56.5 (down from 65)
RB Michael Warren – $7,800 DK/$10,000 FD – Probably going to be too expensive on FD, but one of the safer options on DraftKings at RB in what should be a competitive game that Cincy should control. You can lock him in for 21-24 touches against a soft UCLA defense.
WR Alex Pierce – $3,500 DK/$5,600 FD – Reports out of camp said Pierce was leading the way at WR for Cincy, and he was given a starting spot on the depth chart. UCLA’s pass defense was mediocre last season, and Pierce is a solid way to get snaps for cheap. That said, expect a pretty big rotation at outside WR, with Trent Cloud and Thomas Geddis in the mix as well. Rashad Medaris is the team’s top returning WR, but I’m not too keen on paying that price.
RB Joshua Kelley – $8,000 DK/$9,600 FD – Appears to be fully healthy, which means he should be in for a big workload. Cincinnati’s defense is projected to be top 40 this year, so it’s not a great spot for UCLA, and they are expected to be playing from behind for most of this game. I think there are better spots, but you know you’ll be getting great volume in a guy like Kelley. I’m not interested in UCLA outside of him, with Theo Howard’s workload in question and much better QBs on the slate.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson (-37) — 61.5
This is going to be rough for Georgia Tech. You’re not playing anyone on that squad.
And as 37 point favorites, it’s tough to get to Clemson as well. Trevor Lawrence/Travis Etienne may only play the first half before getting Texas A&M next week and are only GPP darts. WR Tee Higgins falls into that same category. If you’re looking to get a bit dicey, Lyn-J Dixon, TJ Chase, and Frank Ladson are a few guys that could get a bit of run with the starters, then play a lot down the stretch once the game gets out of hand. Still, it’s hard to get to any Clemson in cash because of the prices and blowout risk. Even in Dixon, you’re hoping for 12-14 touches best case, and it’s not like he’s underpriced on either site. He’s a fine RB2 though with serious upside vs a pitiful team.
The one guy that deserves an actual write up from Clemson is WR Diondre Overton ($3,400 DK/$7,800 FD), who will draw most of the first team reps in the slot with Amari Rodgers out. He is a stone cold lock on DraftKings, in my opinion. Even if he gets 4-5 targets out of the slot, he can easily pay off his price tag.
Florida International @ Tulane (-3) — 58.5
Tulane is expected to play a very up-tempo offense, and I actually don’t hate the over in this game, as it could become very back-and-forth with two underwhelming defenses.
QB Justin McMillan – $5,700 DK/$9,000 FD – Likely to be one of my 2 QBs on DK, but not a must on FD. McMillan has some running ability, should get more snaps this year (because of the tempo), and gets a mediocre defense to start the season off. Beyond this, he’s got running capabilities to create a bit of cushion. Generally, I love taking these bargain QBs who can provide some rushing stats.
I’m going to have one of the two Tulane WRs in cash as well, and there is a ton of buzz around Jalen McCleskey, the Oklahoma State transfer who will fill a big void in this offense. I slightly prefer him to Darnell Mooney, but don’t have an issue with either one. I think McCleskey is likely to be the chalkier of the two.
Texas State @ Texas A&M (-33) — 57
Another game that it’s going to be really hard to get to in cash games, as Texas A&M should roll with little to no pushback from TSU. The RB situation for A&M is messy behind Jashaun Corbin, and there’s no one I can recommend in cash games here. Kellen Mond is OK in GPP, but other than that, just fade this game entirely. The field will do the same.
Utah (-6.5) @ BYU — 48.5
QB Zach Wilson – $6,100 DK/$8,200 FD – In play for me despite the relatively low total. Played great after taking over last season, and adds a rushing floor. That said, it’s not a great matchup, as Utah had a pretty stout defense last year and should be good again this year. I think there are much better cash options on the board, and both of these QBs in this game don’t have a ton of upside. Wilson is somewhat appealing on FanDuel, where he’s very cheap for a starting QB with rushing ability. At the end of the day, this is the lowest total on the slate and two of the best defenses on the slate. There are just better spots with much better average projections.
Ty’Son Williams – $4,500 DK/$7,900 FD – South Carolina transfer who was named the starting RB prior to this game. I do think BYU is going to split carries, as they did last year, but expect Williams to lead the backfield in a game that should see a ground and pound. It’s tough to make this bet in cash on one of the worst team totals on the slate vs a tough Utah defense, but Williams is very talented and far too cheap if he’s getting 12+ touches as the true RB1.
Britain Covey – $4,400 DK/$8,100 FD – Pretty much only an option on DraftKings. Reports say he’s good to go for this game, and he had a team-high 85 targets last season. The team’s clear WR1 if he is truly healthy. Though I think the defenses will dominate this game, I’m still interested in Covey as a cheap WR option on DK. Demari Simpkins ($3,600 DK/$5,400 FD) is coming into his senior year as a starter as well, and is basically free on both sites. I’m fine with him as a punt, but his floor is definitely a bit shaky.
Kent St. @ Arizona St. (-24.5) —61.5 (DK ONLY)
Despite the line, I’m expecting Kent State to put up a fight here, as Arizona State is ushering in a new freshman QB. Kent State played at the 8th fastest pace last year, and should push the pace of this game. That’s going to make this the most targetable game for DFS purposes.
RB Eno Benjamin – $8,800 – One of the top returners in the country gets a nutted matchup as 24 point favorites against an up-tempo offense. You really couldn’t ask for a better spot for a work horse RB. He is the clear No. 1 guy you want to pay for on this DK slate. He will certainly be the chalkiest RB on the slate.
RB Jo-El Shaw – $4,800 – Shaw has an awesome price tag for a guy that has 20+ touch upside. Arizona State’s defense was less than impressive last year, and Shaw was an absolute work horse down the stretch last year. Certainly a solid value option as your RB2.
QB Jayden Daniels – $5,600 – True freshman, dual-threat QB who won the job in camp. Very athletic guy who was an All-American last year. Likely to be my other QB in the Super FLEX next to McMillan. Too cheap for a guy who can do a ton of damage with his feet in a pace-up spot versus a turrrrible defense. It’s a super easy plug and play.
QB Woody Barrett – $4,800 – Prefer McMillan and Daniels to Barrett, who just kinda isn’t that good. That said, if Kent is going to score, it’s going to be through Barrett, who can also do some running of his own. He’s an interesting GPP pivot if you like Kent in this game, and the price isn’t bad considering his rushing floor.
WR Mike Carrigan – $4,900 – Another interesting Kent option. I would expect the Golden Flashes to need to pass a lot in this game, and Carrigan is the WR1, though Dixon and McKoy are fine as well. I’d mostly look to get one of these guys if you want to game stack, running it back with WRs who may be able to keep the game competitive. I’d rank them Carrigan, Dixon, then McKoy.
WR Brandon Aiyuk – $6,500 – Will lineup in the X for Arizona State, which typically correlates to the most fantasy production. He finished last year strong after moving into the lineup, and should continue to be featured as the team’s No. 1 wideout going forward. I consider Kyle Williams a GPP pivot off Aiyuk, though he will play as the starter, and Frank Darby as a prime stacking candidate.
FAMU @ UCF (-44) — 66 (FD ONLY)
Similar situation to Clemson. If you’re going with any Golden Knights, you’re only getting to them in GPPs. Brandon Wimbush is too expensive to play in cash games if we’re only getting 1 half. All of the RBs are too expensive in an unknown time share. Gabriel Davis is one of the most talented WRs in the country and certainly has a floor in this matchup. I actually prefer him to the Clemson WRs because he is the team’s clear No. 1 and his target load is safe.