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Minnesota Twins — 5.5 implied (down from 5.8)
Gerson Bautista, a mid-level relief prospect, will start before giving way to Tommy Milone likely in the second inning. Bautista had a 5.28 xFIP in AAA, but still gives Nelson Cruz a slight bump down. Still, Cruz is probably the top outfielder on the slate, with massive power vs LHP, which Milone is. Milone has kept lefties relatively in check, but he’s giving up a 5.86 xFIP, 42% hard contact and 53% fly ball to RHP. Outside of Cruz, feel free to target Mitch Garver and the bottom of the order (Cron, Sano, Buxton) in GPPs, and Marwin Gonzalez as a value play. The Mariners have the 4th worst bullpen (4.90 xFIP) over the last month.
Toronto Blue Jays — 5.1 implied (down from 5.5)
I’m shocked this game total has dropped, considering the two (arguably) worst starting pitchers are going to be on the mound. Hess had his best game of his career against the Blue Jays earlier this year, but I wouldn’t expect that again. I want to mostly target the righties here, as Hess is giving up 4.17 HR/9, 6.18 xFIP, 45.8% hard hit and 58.5% FB to righties, and he’s pitching in a terrible ballpark for pitchers. Cavan Biggio is a great value in the lead off spot, despite batting from the left, while Vlad Guerrero, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, and Teoscar Hernandez all make fantastic cash game plays. Luke Maile is the spot to go for a cheap catcher on DraftKings. I would definitely be trying to get some Blue Jays in this spot.
Baltimore Orioles — 5 implied (down from 5.6)
Derek Law will open the game before giving way to Edwin Jackson. Law is solid, which takes away from the top of this lineup a bit, but Jackson is putrid. His ERA is 11.9 through five starts, 8.43 xFIP, including a 7.77 xFIP to righties, and over 45% hard contact to both sides. Anyone who gets two ABs against Jackson is in great shape. Trey Mancini is the top projecting hitter in raw points, but he’s also extremely expensive for what you’re getting. Jonathan Villar is the top cash option on the team, as he adds more contact and power from the left side of the plate. Anthony Santander has hit well since joining the major league squad, and is only $4k on DraftKings, making him a solid cash play. The rest of the team is priced up for what you’re getting, so it’s tough to get to them in cash, but make great GPP plays.