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Chicago Cubs – 6.5 runs (up from 6)
Jeff Hoffman is a post-prospect who was once expected to be a big piece in this Rockies rotation and may still be able to regain some of his upside however for now he still struggles with his command which will not be favorable at all in a matchup vs one of the most patient teams in the league in the Cubs. Last year Hoffman walked twice as many lefties than he struck out to go along with an xFIP above 6’s. In addition the wind is blowing out at Wrigley at 10 MPH and Wrigley is the most wind sensitive ballpark in baseball which makes this a spot for potential fireworks for the Cubs.
Boston Red Sox – 5.9 runs (no movement)
Glenn Sparkman is giving up an xFIP in the 5’s and allowing 2.61 HR/9 to LHB on the season. This goes along with a hard contact rate above 40% to both handedness dating back to last year. In addition over the last 14 days the Royals bullpen has reverted back to its poor shape as it ranks in the bottom seven in baseball. Boston is on the road in a warm Kaufmann stadium where they are guaranteed the 9th inning for ABs making this a high upside stack and spot to look for for potential one offs.
Texas Rangers – 5.6 runs (down from 6)
Dylan Bunny really isn’t the worst pitcher out there on this slate but a flyball pitcher in Arlington just does not play well as this is a Rangers lineup that loves to put the ball in the air and the ball can really fly at Arlington on warm days like today. Bundy has a flyball rate above 42% to both handedness and is allowing 1.01 HR/9 to lefties and 2.78 HR/9 to righties. I wouldn’t prioritize righties over lefties in this spot though as his hard contact rate is fairly similar to both. I’d look here as a full stack and definitely for some power one offs in guys like Mazara, Gallo and Choo.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 5.7 runs (up from 5.3)
Taylor Clarke in a fairly limited sample size is allowing a 6.92 xFIP to LHB to go along with a 33% hard contact and 33% flyball rate. Struggling with lefties is far from optimal for any pitcher vs the Dodgers as they have multiple dominant left handed bats and can skew a lineup to be quite LHB dominant. In addition Clarke doesn’t possess the swing and miss stuff needed to get some of these lefties out as he boasts a below avg SwSTR% of 8.5%.