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Rangers – 5.6 runs (down from 5.8)
Jakob Junis is allowing 1.65 HR/9 to LHB and 1.32 HR/9 to RHB. When you take him away from the friendly confines of Kauffman stadium his HR/9 jumps to 2.20. Now he’s pitching in notorious hitters park in Arlington vs a team with a ton of power. Junis is allowing over 40% hard contact to both handedness and following him up is a Royals bullpen that ranks as the 3rd worst over the last 14 days.
Dodgers – 5.4 runs (up from 4.9)
Jason Vargas is truly as bad as it gets for starting pitchers. He’s allowing 55 and 40% fly balls to LHB and RHB respectively to go along with a 53 and 48% hard hit rate respectively. His xFIP is in the high 5’s to both handedness and jumps to over 6 on the road. Now he gets a Dodgers team that ranks in the top three in overall wRC+ and presents a horrible matchup for Vargas. I’d look towards all the RHB and LHB as a full stack and not shy away from any individual as a one off.
Indians – 5 runs (down from 5.2)
Manny Banuelos fits the fold of SP’s we are targeting today with an xFIP above 5 and HR/9 rates well above the league average. In Banuelos case though I anticipate his 1.80 HR/9 to LHB coming down considering he is only giving up 21% hard contact to lefties but vs righties it’s a whole different story with a 40% hard hit rate and a 37% flyball rate backed up by a monster 2.88 HR/9. The White Sox bullpen is also one of the worst in baseball over the course of the season. Prioritize the righties as a stack and one offs here.
Mariners – 4.7 runs (up from 4.4)
Felix Pena will follow Luis Garcia who is the opener for this game. While Pena does typically have more success following an opener this is still a +EV spot for the Mariners offense as Pena is due for some negative regression. He is allowing 43% HC to lefties and 41% to righties to go along with a heavy flyball lean vs LHB at 51%. This is in stark contrast to his batted ball profile vs RHB which sits at a 52% GB rate. I think a Seattle LHB stack makes a lot of sense and can be had at a good value as well with Mallex and Kyle Seager both being under 3.7k on DraftKings.