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Braves – 6 runs (up from 5.2)

Anibal Sanchez rode a new cutter to some success last year but this year that has been far from the case. He is walking over 5 BB/9 with a slight increase vs LHB. He’s doing a decent job of limiting hard contact but is just not generating enough ground balls to avoid trouble. With a 30% LD rate and 40% FB rate to both handedness there are too many balls being put in play with + expected outcomes. This Braves team is patient and will exploit his walk issues and in addition it’s 91 degrees, hot and humid and the Nationals boast the worst bullpen in baseball.

Diamondbacks – 5.8 runs (down from 6.1)

Jeff Hoffman is a prospect with some upside as he throws gas with his fastball touching 99 MPH. Unfortunately that comes with its fair share of walk and hard contact issues. The Diamondbacks are on the road where they will receive guaranteed 9th inning ABs and are fairly cheap with how their lineup has come out. Locastro and Vargas are batting 1 and 2 and are both in the mid 4’s while Kevin Cron and Swihart are 4.5k and 3.7k respectively batting 5th and 6th.

Rockies – 5.3 runs (down from 5.5)

People may shy away from the Rockies since they’re up against Robbie Ray but Ray is still prone to giving up a lot of hard contact and walks to RHB. He’s walking just about 5 RHB per 9 innings while giving up 44% hard contact and 40% fly balls to the same handedness. He definitely has some swing and miss upside so we could see some frustrating ABs if he’s able to locate his pitches but I’ll take my chances on these potentially low owned Colorado RHB at home. Look to Nado, Story, Reynolds, Desmond as key pieces in a stack and feel free to mix in some lefties batting in prominent spots like Tapia and Dahl.

Phillies – 5.7 runs (up from 5.5)

Hot and humid in Philly and the Phillies draw an easy matchup vs Genesis Cabrera a not so good prospect who pitched to a 6.35 xFIP in Triple AAA this year. I like looking to the top of the order here for a stack as McCutchen and Segura both have positive splits vs LHP this year while Bryce is hitting them well and Rhys and JT get the platoon advantage. I don’t anticipate Cabrera lasting too long in this game and the STL bullpen is just average so it’s not a matchup to avoid.


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