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Rockies – 6.5 runs (no movement)
Merill Kelly is the next average to below average pitcher to step into Coors Field. On the season he has an xFIP in the 5’s although his HR/9 and xFIP is slightly higher vs RHB. As far as batted balls go he is giving up 44% hard contact to lefties and 38.5% to righties to go along with a 30% FB and LD rate to lefties and a 43.3% FB rate to righties. All these numbers scream below average and I’ll be loading up on Rockies in the hitters Mecca tonight.
Diamondbacks – 5.6 runs (down from 6.1)
On the flip side of the Coors game we have the Diamondbacks vs Antonio Senzatela who while he does do a decent job of generating ground balls at a greater than 50% clip he still struggles mightily with hard contact giving up 40% to lefties and 45% to righties. He also struggles with his walks as he’s walking over 5 BB/9 vs LHHB and just under 3 BB/9 vs RHB. The Diamondbacks will be way less owned than the Rockies which make them a nice GPP pivot as a full stack while certainly in play as one offs.
Mariners – 5.6 runs (up from 5.1)
This is the Adrian Sampson special. Sampson is a guy we’ve picked on all season and Texas has moved him behind an opener in order to reduce the amount of times he sees the top of the order. No worries though as this is still a great SP/Bullpen matchup for the Mariners. Sampson is allowing 50% HC to lefties and 45% to righties. This goes along with a high flyball rate to both handedness. I’ll be looking towards a full stack here as a viable play as well as looking to some power one offs in this spot.
Phillies – 5.5 runs (up from 4.9)
People may shy away from this matchup with the name Adam Wainwright on the mound but this is far from the Waino we’re accustomed too. This version is walking just as many LHB as he is striking out while giving up 2.11 HR/9 to LHB. This goes along with the hard contact he is giving up as he’s giving up 43 and 42% HC respectively to LHB and RHB. I’d look towards the top of the order as a full stack and I’d look towards the lefties primarily as individual one offs.