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Cardinals: 6.4 runs (up from 6.3)
The Cardinals are drawing the nut matchup tonight vs Adrian Sampson who does literally nothing well. He’s giving up over 47% hard contact to both handedness and over a 40% fly ball rate which will not play well in Arlington. He has a 6.16 xFIP vs right handed bats and a 2.61 HR/9 which will not play well vs the slew of talented right handed bats that the Cardinals possess. Finally, he’s backed by the 10th worst bullpen in baseball over the L14 games so it’ll be even more fireworks once they knock Sampson out of the game in a few innings.
Rangers: 5.2 runs (up from 4.8)
On the flip side of things we’re seeing the Rangers actually pick up some reverse line movement vs the Cardinals but it has nothing to do with Sampson as a pitcher. It has everything to do with how well these Ranger lefties match up vs Miles Mikolas. Mikolas is a guy who has an incredibly low SwSTR% and relies on living around the zone and not walking guys to succeed. He has a 36.1% hard hit and flyball rate to lefties to go along with a 3.09 BB/9 rate and a 1.93 HR/9. The Rangers are a patient bunch of left handed hitters with the 6th highest walk rate in the majors and there whole lineup is built to punish a low strikeout righty like Mikolas. Look to all the lefties like Choo, Calhoun, Mazara, Gallo and Odor as a nice stack tonight.
Athletics: 5.2 runs (up from 4.7)
Daniel Norris struggles mightily vs right handed bats giving up a 40% hard hit rate and a 39% flyball rate. His fairly tiny 8.6 HHR/FB% vs righties is due for a decent amount of negative regression and it could very well come tonights vs an A’s lineup loaded with powerful righties. Semien, Pinder, Chapman, Davis, and Piscotty all have much better splits vs lefties than righties and they’re all incredibly cheap on DraftKings. In addition the Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball over the L14 games.
GPP: Dodgers 5.3 runs (up from 5.1)
Desclafani is actually not that bad of a pitcher and is honestly someone we’ll probably look to play a few times this season vs right handed heavy lineups in pitchers parks. Unfortunately that is not the case tonight as he’s going up against a lineup loaded with talented lefties in Coors Field East (Great American Ballpark in Cinci). Desclafani is giving up a 44.2% hard hit rate and a 55% flyball rate to lefties on the season and now runs into a plethora of lefties like Joc, Muncy, Bellinger, Verdugo and Seager. Look towards any of those guys as great one offs or as a full LAD stack as well.