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Blue Jays: 5.0 runs (up from 4.8)
Dylan Covey in a tiny sample size this year has walked 17.18 BB/9! Obviously this isn’t something that will last but this is a guy with consistent walk issues and who struggles with the long ball. Those are two key components to look for when stacking a team because you want guys getting on base and you want hard hit balls. The Blue Jays are on the road so you’re guaranteed 9th inning ABs, it’s warm with the wind gently blowing out in Chicago and the White Sox have the 4th worst bullpen in baseball.
Braves: 5.2 runs (up from 4.8)
Wainwright is a decent pitcher who is due for some fairly stark negative regression. He’s currently riding an unsustainable .230 BABIP vs right handed bats despite allowing 42% hard contact to them and 46% to lefties. Atlanta’s team total is on the rise and I like all the top of the order bats for them tonight and also think you can mix in some lower order guys like Austin Riley who showcased massive power in the minors and got his first major league bomb last night.
Minnesota: 4.9 runs (up from 4.6)
Erik Swanson is just super meh. He’s primarily a fastball pitcher who has no real putaway pitches and nothing that projects as a + pitch. He has shown some pretty decent reverse splits so start with the righties here when building a stack as Swanson has allowed just under 3 HR/9 on a 39% hard hit and 50% flyball rate to righties. The Mariners bullpen over the last 14 days has been one of the worst in the league so in the event that Minnesota gets to Swanson early there should be a plethora of runs to come late as well.
GPP: Mariners 4.7 runs (up from 4.5)
Pineda is a pretty good pitcher who struggles from throwing too many strikes. Pineda lives around the zone so when he does get hit, he gets hit fairly hard. He’s giving up a 46% flyball rate to righties and coupled with his near 50% hard contact rate makes a lot of these Mariner righties like Haniger, Encarnacion, and Santana all very interesting low owned plays.