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Royals: 5.4 runs (up from 5.0)
Shelby Miller walks more guys than he strikes out and is giving up 52% hard contact to lefties and 43% to righties. He’s up against an extremely patient Royals team that will make him throw a lot of pitches. Royals team total has already risen by .4 from 5 to 5.4 and I anticipate that moving even higher. The Rangers also boast the 6th worst bullpen in baseball over the L14 games. Look towards a top of the order stack for speed and mix in some of the middle of the order power bats as well.
Astros: 6.3 runs (up from 5.6)
The Astros are raking anyone in their way right now and today’s victim is Ryan Carpenter. A mediocre lefty with no plus pitches followed by the 2nd worst bullpen in baseball vs the hottest team in the majors right now. Carpenter last year gave up over 3 HR/9 and a 45% hard contact rate to right handed bats. Load up on the righties in this lineup like Springer, Bregman, Correa, Yuli, Diaz.
Red Sox: 5.3 runs (up from 5.2)
Kyle Freeland is typically a guy who can generate pretty soft contact and a healthy amount of ground balls but that has been far from the case this year. He’s giving up a 5.06 xFIP to righties and 1.66 HR/9. This is backed by a 45% hard contact rate and a 36% fly ball rate to righties. I like a lot of these top of the order Red Sox like Mookie, JD, Xander. JD was also my high-priced home run call of the day today on my MLB breakdown video.
Athletics 4.7 runs (up from 4.6)
Mike Leake this year has been a heavy reverse splits righty giving up a 5.57 xFIP, 2.7 HR/9, 46% hard contact rate and 44% fly ball rate to righties as opposed to a 4.03 xFIP, 1.65 HR/9, 39.8% hard contact rate and 57% ground ball rate to lefties. Luckily for us Oakland leans heavily right handed where that slider will be far less effective so I’ll be interested in a few of these Oakland righties like Davis who is still 4k on Draftkings and Matt Chapman. Although I am not opposed to mixing in a couple lefties like Profar and Olson as Leake’s numbers are still fairly mediocre vs lefties. Seattle also has the 7th worst bullpen in baseball over the last 14 days.