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Yankees – 5.3 run total
Mike Leake has had a decent year with his 45% fly ball and 50% hard contact rates in T-Mobile Park this year. That’s just not going to play as well in Yankee Stadium, a hitter-friendly park with shallow fence. Minor isn’t missing bats, with a 8.5% SwStr%, and the Yankees are getting more healthy by the day, with Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar back. Leake throws his fastball and cutter the most, and Gary Sanchez has been the top hitter for the Yankees on both pitches. He’s tough to pay for in cash, but makes a ton of sense in GPPs if you can’t get there in cash games. I’m looking to Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Brett Gardner in cash games.
Astros – 5.1 run total
Mike Minor is looking very improved this year after an injury set back his 2018, as he’s getting a ton more whiffs. He is still giving up 40% FB and 36.5% HH to righties this year, with a respectable 4.12 xFIP. These Astros are priced down, so really you can play anyone 1-7 today at their prices. George Springer and Carlos Correa are the team’s best slider hitters, which is Minor’s worst pitch, throwing it about 25% percent of the time. Robinson Chirinos is raking recently and is priced way down today at $3,500, and is someone I will be looking hard at in cash games, batting 7th with no Brantley in the lineup.
Braves – 4.4 run total
Like the Astros, Braves are priced down more than they should be based on the matchup. This is still a top 5 hitting team in the league, and Weaver gives up plenty of hard hit + fly ball, especially to righties. He’s getting under 10% soft contact vs RHB, despite the improvements he’s made this year. I prefer Josh Donaldson and Ronald Acuna as my favorite hitters, both only $4,200 on DraftKings. Whatever stack you have here, you’re looking for the HRs in 84 degree weather against a fly ball pitcher.
GPP: Dodgers – 3.9 run total
Save this one for GPPs, as it can be difficult to get to Patrick Corbin, as he tends to limit devastating damage, but he is giving up over 1 HR per 9 to both hands and is playing a really hot Dodgers team. He’s also backed by a terrible bullpen. Corbin will be highly owned, and the Dodgers will not be. It’s that simple. I favor the righties.