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Time: 9 p.m. EST
Line: Baylor -8.5
Oklahoma State ATS away: 5-9
Baylor ATS home: 7-5-2
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Baylor is coming off a loss at home to a tough Kansas State team that allowed the Bears to score only 60 points, but before that the team had rolled off three wins, two against competitive foes Texas and Iowa State. Down the stretch this year, they’ve shown that they belong as a top half Big 12 team.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has tumbled to the bottom of the conference with West Virginia, winning only one Big 12 game since its January 12 win over West Virginia. They have the second-worst offense and defense in the Big 12, and have struggled to produce down the stretch, missing Michael Weather to suspension and lacking any depth.
Oklahoma State’s offense has relied largely on hitting three pointers down the stretch, from guys like Thomas Dziagwa (42.1% 3PM in conference), Lindy Waters (52.8% 3PM), and Curtis Jones (33.8% 3PM) off the bench. It took a 17-of-32 three-point shooting night from Oklahoma State to get them to overtime with Texas Tech two games ago, and it’s just hard to envision that shooting keeping them in another game with a superior team. Baylor has a middling three-point defense, so if you think those three guys can keep Oklahoma State hot on senior night in Waco, they might be your pick.
But on paper, Baylor has a far more effective offense (3rd in the Big 12), grab more offensive rebounds (1st in the Big 12), and even knock down three-pointers (1st in the Big 12) at a better rate than Oklahoma State. Even if somehow the shots don’t fall for Baylor tonight against the least efficient defense in the Big 12, Baylor should have no issues continuing to dominate the offensive glass against a weak Oklahoma State front court.
While Baylor lost that tough game to Kansas State on Saturday, I see no reason why their struggles will continue for them here. KenPom has Baylor slated for a 10-point win, 73-63, while 72% of bets and 87% of all money is coming in on Baylor to win this game by the 8.5 spread. I’m riding with the heavy money and going with the Bears on senior night for King McClure and Makai Mason.
Pick: Baylor -8.5