NHL Betting: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets Trends, Advantage and Pick

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The Winnipeg Jets head to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning and while this should be a great matchup between two division leaders there are a few numbers that would indicate that there is some value in betting the under this game.

Spread: Lightning -196

Total: 7

Winnipeg Jets O/U away ATS: 14-11-6

Tampa Bay O/U home ATS: 15-16-3

Both Winnipeg and Tampa rank in the bottom five in the NHL in high danger chances for per 60 mins (HDCF/60) over the last 10 games. Winnipeg is 28th in the league while Tampa sits at 30th in the league in HDCF/60 both creating less than 10 HDCF/60, which sandwiches them between offensively inept teams like Vancouver and the LA Kings.

In addition to this Tampa has been one of the best teams in the league at suppressing high danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60) at 10.27 HDCA/60, good for 7th best in the league over the last 10 games. Winnipeg on the other hand has been poor defensively ranking 6th worst over its L10 games in HDCA/60.

This seems to indicate that the main way this game could hit the over would be if Tampa smashed and put up 5-6 goals on their own vs a Winnipeg team that is going through a bit of a defensive lull right now.

Thankfully Tampa is due for some pretty stark shooting regression. The Lightning over the L10 games lead the entire league in shooting percentage at just under 13%. While it’s certainly plausible that they keep this up because of the sheer amount of individual talent on the team it is more likely that they regress back somewhere close to the league norm of around 8.5%.

Pick: Under 7 (-135) and I’d bet it down to 6.5 currently listed at +129 all the way down to +110.

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