NBA Locks Sheet: March 5

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PG/SG Dennis Schroder ($5,500) – With Paul George likely out again, Schroder will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate and for good reason. In 637 minutes this year with George off the court, he owns a 31.3% usage rating and a 31.5 AST% while averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute. In the past three games with PG out, he’s played 33, 31 (missed two minutes to blowout), and 40 minutes. Thunder also boast the third highest team total (117).

C Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600) –  In a massive pace-up spot vs the third fast team in the league and sporting the second highest team total on the slate, I’m all over the Timberwolves star. Over the past month, KAT has a 31.9% usage rating, 19.8 AST%, 21.1 TRB% while averaging 1.67 fantasy points per minute. Jeff Teague has been sidelined for four of those games but that hasn’t had much of an impact has he’s still averaged 1.64 FPPM with him on the court. Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose seem to still be limited so that only helps his case.

Cash plays

PG Russell Westbrook ($11,300) – Westbrook is another player who sees a significant bump with Paul George off the court. The Timberwolves have been a bottom ten defense the entire year. In 440 minutes with George off the court, he has a 34.7% usage rating, 45.5 AST%, 15.2 TRB% while averaging 1.56 FPPM. Over the past 3 games with PG out, Westbrook has only been at 1.36 FPPM and playing poorly. I still think he is a fine cash play but garners some risk. He is due for some positive regression so if you’re on him, you could get him at a lot lower ownership than he should be.

PG Jeff Teague ($5,300) – After coming back from his injury last game, Teague played 26 minutes but missed the last 2 minutes due to a blowout. He’s in the same situation as Towns, I want to be heavy on the Wolves tonight and that includes Teague. I expect him to be back at his 30+ minutes a game. Ever since Ryan Saunders took over as the head coach, Derrick Rose’s minutes have taken a hit and he no longer plays point guard. That leaves all 48 minutes to both Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, with Teague getting the large majority.

PG/SG Stephen Curry ($9,000) and SF/PF Kevin Durant ($9,100) – Curry and Durant are only cash viable to me if Klay Thompson were to miss this game. He is currently questionable, missed last game and was absent at Monday’s practice. Curry owns a 39.5% usage rating while Durant has a 35.2% usage rating with Thompson off the court. The Warriors garner the highest projected team total on the slate (119.25) and expect them to stagger Durant and Curry’s time on the court to get there.

SG/SF Andrew Wiggins ($5,700) – Just another Timberwolves player that I don’t mind having a piece of. On the season with Jimmy Butler and Robert Covington off the court, Wiggins has a 25.3% usage rating 0.92 FPPM. In competitive games, he is easily projectile for 38 minutes with upside of more. The spread on this game is currently just 2. In his last two meetings with the Thunder, he’s averaged 54.3 DraftKings points while playing 40 minutes both games. Small caveat that Derrick Rose was out for both games and Jeff Teague was out for one of them.

SF/PF Tobias Harris ($7,400) – Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic have already been ruled out this game and Harris has been great in their absence. With a 23.6% usage rating and averaging 1.15 FPPM, it doesn’t seem all that enticing but he has been playing massive minutes. In the five games without Embiid, he’s played 28 minutes per game with upwards of 43.

PF Jerami Grant ($5,300) – Grant has been about as safe as it gets with George off the court. With him out, it allows the Thunder to play Markieff Morris more minutes at the 3, leaving additional minutes for Grant at the 4. He has played 37, 31 (missed two minutes to blowout), and 37 minutes in the past three games with PG out. The minutes and matchup should outweigh his paltry 0.85 FPPM. I think he is one of the safer point per dollar options on the slate.

PF/C Draymond Green ($5,600) – Simply a price play as his salary has dropped way too far. Green is averaging 1 FPPM with Klay Thompson off the court this season in 283.2 minutes. I expect him to see his minutes to rise a bit, assuming the game stays competitive.

C Steven Adams ($6,100) – We’ve seen his minutes decline as of late but expect him to nearly match Town’s minutes tonight as they’ll need his defensive prowess. Adams has the second biggest increase in fantasy production with George off the court, averaging 1.12 FPPM. The Timberwolves have been a middling team in terms of giving up points in the paint this season.

GPP plays

PG/SF Ben Simmons ($8,400) – In the past 5 games with Embiid out and Marjanovic off the court, Simmons averages 1.31 FPPM. He has also averaged 38 minutes per game over this span. The only thing keeping him from a cash play is Curry and Durant being relatively close in price and much safer options. Simmons is a great pivot to them.

C Myles Turner ($5,700) – Turner has been disappointing to say the least with Sabonis sidelined. While in competitive games and avoiding foul trouble, he’s good for 30-32 minutes. He’s averaged 1.13 FPPM without Oladipo this season but has been under at 0.86 FPPM as of late. HE’s a great GPP pivot off of guys like Draymond Green and Steven Adams if you think the positive regression comes tonight vs. the Bulls.

Value plays

PF/C Jonah Bolden ($3,900) and SF/PF Mike Scott ($4,000) – With Marjanovic and Embiid already ruled out, A ton of minutes have opened up for these two. Amir Johnson and Jonah Bolden are questionable as well. As of right now, I expect Johnson to sit and Bolden to play. Mike Scott could very well be chalk today due to his recent boosts in minutes but a lot of that is due to Bolden’s foul trouble. Barring foul trouble, I think Bolden gets the bulk of the minutes because they will need his size vs. Nikola Vucevic. Getting in foul trouble is a serious worry but the upside is through the roof because he averages 1.04 FPPM compared to Scott’s 0.82 FPPM. If Johnson and Bolden sit, Scott becomes one of the best value plays on the slate.

PG/SG Avery Bradley ($4,400) – Not quite sure why his price keeps dropping but I want to take advantage, despite the matchup. Averaging 31.2 minutes since joining the Grizzlies and they’re only trending upwards. With Jaren Jackson Jr. still sidelined, he’s sporting a 22.6% usage rating and a 19 AST%  while averaging 1.02 FPPM. Hard not to be interested in Bradley tonight, assuming he’s a full go.

SG/SF Andre Iguodala ($3,800) – I expect Alfonzo McKinnie or Damion Lee to grab the spot here tonight and hope people flock to that player. Iguodala has been a much better fantasy contributor over the past couple years compared to McKinnie and still averages 0.05 FPPM more over the course of this year. With his minutes also being much more secure than McKinnie’s and Lee’s and you will be able to get him at a lot lower ownership than he should be.

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Locks Sheet

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