[tm_pb_section admin_label=”section”][tm_pb_row admin_label=”row”][tm_pb_column type=”4_4″][tm_pb_text admin_label=”Text” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Spread: Michigan State -14
Nebraska ATS away: 3-7-1
Michigan State ATS home: 10-4
It’s always nice to see the ATS home/away standings matchup with my pick, though it’s never the first thing I consider when looking at a line. Here is a spot where the standings match almost perfectly, which is a nice vote of confidence before we get into the real breakdown.
Michigan State is a game behind in the Big 10 after dropping their second game to Indiana this season, but I’m expecting a big bounce back for the Spartans here before a big game against Michigan on Saturday. The Indiana game was certainly an anomaly, as Michigan State controlled all but the last ten minutes, when they couldn’t make a shot and Indiana found a way to control the offensive glass.
Despite that, the Spartans have consistently won the rebounding battle this year and have one of the most effective offenses in college basketball this year. Nebraska has not won a rebounding battle in a game since February 2 against Illinois. The Cornhuskers have also averaged only 62.5 points in the four away games since Isaac Copeland was injured, someone who could both open up the post and get out on the perimeter. Now they face one of the best defenses in the nation, and I still don’t think bookmakers have fully adjusted to Copeland being out, taking into account how badly that injury hurt this offense.
Yes, Michigan State will be missing Nick Ward for this game, but this is a defense that should have no trouble dealing with Nebraska’s James Palmer and a team that’s 265th in effective FG% in college basketball this season. Sure, the Cornhuskers don’t turn the ball over, but they’re going to have a mighty hard time scoring against a stringent Michigan State defense with their extremely one-dimensional offense with sporadic shooters and no depth.
Michigan State is an early favorite of those placing bets on the spread early, with 72% of the bets coming in on Michigan State -14 along with 95% percent of the money. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line jump just a bit, though 14 is already a good bit to lay. If this gets up any higher, consider getting on the first half line instead.
Pick: Michigan State -14
[/tm_pb_text][/tm_pb_column][/tm_pb_row][/tm_pb_section][tm_pb_section fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” admin_label=”Section”][tm_pb_row admin_label=”Row”][/tm_pb_row][/tm_pb_section]